🔗 Share this article

Amid the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another sovereign country and capture its head of state – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.